Big brother alex

There's a pecking order in the Big Brother house this season, and so far it doesn't seem like anyone's managed to turn the tides against it. Find out who's most likely going home on Thursday. And if you haven't already heard, who won the Veto, whether or not it was used, and some other drama that's taken place inside the Big Brother Season 19 house over the last few days. I've also made some charts to lay out how I think Paul is playing the game this season.

But first... spoilers! Here's how the power's shaken out this week...

Head of Household:

Alex

Won the Temptation Competition:

Mark

Lost the Temptation Competition:

Matt

Originally Nominated:

Elena

Jason (saved with Veto)

Won the Veto:

Matt

Veto Used?

Yes, Matt used it to save Jason, leaving himself on the block.

Current nominees:

Elena

Matt (Temptation nom)

Cody (Nominated after Veto)

Yes, Matt won the Veto and instead of using it to take himself off the block, he used it to save Jason. The reason he did that was because, as the Temptation nominee, if Matt had removed himself from the block, Alex would not have been able to set a replacement for him. Since the plan was to backdoor Cody, Matt had to use the Veto to save one of the HoH's nominees. He saved Jason, per the plan, and Cody went up.

Cody will undoubtedly be the first eviction in Thursday night's double-eviction episode.

I keep trying to leave some wiggle room for things to change between when I do these updates and when the event actually takes place. But this season has become so ridiculously predictable that I would actually put money on a Cody exit. He's Paul's next target, so he will be the next evicted houseguest.

As to the drama that's going on in the house, there were a series of spats on Tuesday. First between Alex and Cody, when Cody ate all of Alex's Chex cereal. Cody really didn't seem to GAF at all about that. Alex told him off by stating she's the only one who's being nice to him. She also questioned whether he really has a daughter (he does), after that news spread around the house. No one knows what's true about Cody and what isn't, and after trying to warm up to the house, he seems to have resigned himself to being evicted and has reverted back to DGAF-Cody. He will eat all the cereal if he wants and walk out on Thursday. Points to Cody for not engaging all that much.

Alex also got into it with Elena about Elena taking the $5,000 during the Veto competition, after she apparently specifically made a deal with Alex not to give each other punishments from that competition. Alex had the $5k, and when Elena won the competition, she took Alex's money and gave her the punishment that has required Alex to set up a camp site and cook hot dogs for the houseguests every chance they get. Essentially, Elena made a quick deal she had no intention of keeping and Alex is not happy about it.

Christmas and Josh also got into it with Elena at some point during this pow-wow, and any suspicious Elena might have had about her status in the house was presumably confirmed after all of this. She is not safe.

The pattern that seems to be developing inside the Big Brother house this season is that Paul has a circle of people who are on his team. And then there's an outer circle of people who are lined up as later-targets. Those people are slowly being primed to be evicted, as Paul sews seeds of annoyance and distrust. And then behind that middle circle is the outer-outer circle, which contains the week's target. That person will go out the door, barring any twists, hexes or other unforeseen (or unstoppable) events.

Here's kind of how I imagine the circles looking right now...

Paul's plan Bb19

Cody is in that outer-outer circle. Paul wants him out next. Elena and Mark are in the circle just inside of that, as Paul and other houseguests are talking about getting one of them out after Cody goes. And then Matt/Raven, Alex/Jason, Josh/Christmas are on the inside circle. I'm not entirely sure which houseguest or set is on the bottom rung of that inner-circle ladder, but since they're theoretically weeks away from eviction (barring a Mark or Elena Head of Household in the near future), it doesn't matter right now.

Kevin, I believe, is on the line between the inside circle and later-targets circle. Paul has begun throwing shade Kevin's way, bringing him up negatively in conversations and (finally) circulating that nugget of information he's been keeping about Kevin: that Kevin won the Day 1 $25,000 Temptation. Paul had people convinced Ramses took that prize, but now (Update: after apparently Josh spilled the beans on the secret) he's admitting it was Kevin.

If/when Cody goes on Thursday night, Mark and Elena will likely get bumped up to the next eligible targets, and Kevin will be nudged over into backup target territory. And if that's accurate, then here's how the circles would shift...

Paul Plan next bb19

I think Mark is ahead of Elena, given that he's won more competitions. But in the event they can't get Mark out, they'd likely go for Elena. And if there's a situation where Mark and Elena are both safe (maybe Mark wins Veto and pulls Elena off the block), I think Kevin would be the backup target.

And that is, in a nutshell, how Paul appears to be playing the game this season. Setting a main target, while priming backup targets. He encourages (even orchestrates) disputes and call-outs to create or fuel tension. He also reels people back in when they appear to be getting too upset with someone who's not quite next on the list to go. Eg. If Alex is too down on Elena for taking the $5k, Paul would agree but reaffirm Cody has to go next. Cody first, Elena later.

By the time people realize they're a target or a later-target, it's too late for them to secure enough support to stay. If anything, they make it worse for themselves by calling Paul out or suggesting he's the one who needs to go. It always gets back to Paul.

So not only does it seem likely that Cody will be evicted on Thursday, but given that we're facing a double eviction, there's a very high chance Mark or Elena will go next.

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