Five Oscar Truths Revealed By The Golden Globes

The Golden Globes announced their winners on Sunday, revealing the biases and beliefs of the ninety-something member Hollywood Foreign Press Association. As much as they get mocked for their ability to be bought and paid for, the Globes often look like a solid predictor for how the Oscars will fare. The Oscar ballots were due last week before the Globe results were announced, but it seems certain that the GG nominations heavily influenced the Oscar nods, which will be announced this Thursday.

With the results, one can get a glimpse at an early draft of where the Oscars might lean. The Globes complicate matters by dividing categories into comedies and dramas, but the films this year cross enough genres (and the Oscars’ Best Picture category acknowledge enough movies) to make it look like one big pool of potential honorees. Here are five things that we’re certain the Oscars have confirmed.

1. Her Is Still A Major Player

The one film that keeps missing out on the major prizes at these awards is Her, yet it keeps popping up in the nominations, and has secured a number of Best Screenplay wins. Sunday’s victory for Best Screenplay only cemented the fact that this film has a ton of supporters who respect its craft, suggesting that it’s the one film bound to inspire passion in its supporters. Some acting support would certainly help – Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams may not receive deserved nods this Thursday – but even without it, Spike Jonze’s script is likely strong enough on its own to get the film into the Best Picture scramble.

2. Leo’s Wolf Of Wall Street May Still Howl At The Moon

Few expected that Leonardo DiCaprio would receive kudos for his bacchanalian turn in Martin Scorsese’s controversial comedy. And yet there he was at the podium accepting Best Actor Musical Or Comedy ahead of a challenging pack of candidates. Support for Leo suggests a groundswell of support for the film, which in turn would launch him into the competitive Best Actor Oscar category, where he has been far from a lock to receive attention. It’s very likely a very deserving front-runner or two in the Best Actor race ends up on the outside looking in (Redford?), with Leo taking his spot.

3. Dallas Buyers Club Will Be A Best Picture Candidate

Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto took home Golden Globes for their work in the film, a rare acting sweep that bodes well for the film’s Best Picture chances. Dallas Buyers Club was looking like an acting play for the longest time, and it seemed as if few had a passion for the ginned-up AIDS melodrama where Leto plays an entirely invented character. But recognizing both actors proves that it’s likely impossible to ignore both the film and its message regarding the AIDS crisis. McConaughey isn’t nearly the lock in Best Actor that Leto is in Supporting Actor, but both are sure to be nominated as the film fits into the Best Picture merry-go-round.

4. 12 Years A Slave Is No Longer The Frontrunner

As soon as the film premiered at fall festivals, Steve McQueen’s slavery epic was labeled the film to beat during awards season. Since then, there’s been an almost-clockwork critical backlash, which coincided with the film’s lukewarm theatrical release. Ultimately, the movie didn’t exactly blow the doors off, grossing less than $40 million in America, and the picture was already forgotten by audiences by the time the late-year deluge of prestige pics flooded the marketplace. Chiwetel Ejiofor and Lupita Nyong'o were also considered locks, but both went home empty-handed this weekend, even as one of Nyongo’s previous competitors, Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler, wasn’t even nominated. The film did win the Best Picture Drama award, and is certain to be a Best Picture nominee, but it may not stand a chance because…

5. American Hustle Has It In The Bag

David O. Russell’s frothy comedy peaked at just the right time, approaching $100 million at the box office as ballots had been sent to Academy members. The film was a major player at several critic awards, riding the wave quite perfectly to become the top choice amongst prognosticators as it saw commercial release, but it needed an extra boost, one that it initially hadn’t received as its crowded ensemble failed to get attention.

The Golden Globes alleviated this problem, giving acting nominations not only to the expected duo of Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence, but also Christian Bale. And Lawrence’s recent resurgence in the Best Supporting Actress category gave the film the support it needs in Best Picture. The Best Picture Drama win for 12 Years A Slave and the Best Director award for Gravity’s Alfonso Cuaron suggests what many have been saying for a long time, that it’s a three horse race. But Slave has lost support in the acting races, while Sandra Bullock is not expected to best Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. A Best Picture winner usually needs some support in the acting categories, and there’s certainly a likelihood that American Hustle grabs the most acting nods of any Best Picture nominee, making it impossible for the voters to ignore it.