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Figuring out how individual people are going to react to something is nearly impossible because people are really hard to predict. However, this hasn't stopped somebody from trying to use pure numbers to figure out who the big winners are going to be at this weekend's Academy Awards. Based on the model it looks like La La Land is likely to prevail on Sunday as Best Picture, while that's maybe not too surprising, what is shocking is how, based on the numbers, it's not even close.
According to Ben Zauzmer at The Hollywood Reporter, his mathematical model is based on a combination of previous awards results, critics scores, and even current betting odds. Based on the formula, not only is La La Land the frontrunner, it's got a 58.9% chance of winning, blowing away the competition. The film sitting in second place is Hidden Figures with an 11.2% chance, primarily thanks to its big win at the Screen Actors Guild awards. Most people would agree that La La Land is the likely winner.
There is one award that La La Land is even more likely to take home, however, and that's Best Director. Damien Chazelle is being called the 86% probable winner there. He won the Directors Guild of America Award and that fact by itself makes him the likely Oscar winner. It's been 15 years since somebody won at the DCA but didn't get the Oscar.
Most of the acting awards look to be pretty locked up as well based on these numbers. Viola Davis has an 83.6% chance to take home the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. Emma Stone will be your Best Actress by 67.8%. Mahershala Ali will win Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight with a likelihood of 55.3%. Only the Best Actor award appears to be in contention. Casey Affleck is in a good position of 49.5% likely to win for Manchester by the Sea. However, Denzel Washington is comparatively close behind him with a 29.5% chance. If we go strictly by the number Affleck would look to have it locked but that one's closer than most others.
Finally, we have the two screenplay awards. Best Adapted Screenplay looks to be well locked up. Moonlight, which is based on a play based on the life of the author is sitting at 49.2% with both Lion and Arrival fighting over second place at around 20%. The coin flip category this year looks to be Best Original Screenplay, as Manchester by the Sea appears to be the favorite with 42.8% but La La Land is right behind them at 40.5%. That may be the one that determines your Oscar pool at work.
Do you think these numbers add up? Let us know which category you think is the most likely to see an upset.