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Sonic playing with nunchucks

Box office success doesn’t have to be a sprint; sometimes it’s a marathon and slow and steady can carry a film across the finish line over time. But it still doesn’t hurt to come out of the gate strong and if there’s any character that knows about fast starts it’s Sonic the Hedgehog. And appropriately, it now looks like Sonic the Hedgehog’s opening will make more money than we thought.

Sonic the Hedgehog may be opening on Valentine’s Day, but the Blue Blur has his sights set not on candy hearts, roses, chocolates or even golden rings, he’s eyeing major box office bucks.The latest tracking is in for Paramount’s adaptation of Sega’s iconic videogame franchise and Sonic the Hedgehog is projected to enjoy a 4-day opening weekend between $41 million and $47 million according to Deadline.

For reference, that $41-$47 million forecast is quite a bit more than the $20 million to $30 million that the long-range tracking had Sonic the Hedgehog projected at late last year. It should be noted that those long-range projections of $20-$30 million were for the three-day opening weekend, but still, this newer tracking reflects a more optimistic view of Sonic the Hedgehog’s opening weekend prospects than we previously thought.

Like this past weekend’s Bad Boys For Life, which opened over the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend, Sonic the Hedgehog will open over a four-day holiday weekend. The videogame adaptation from director Jeff Fowler opens on Valentine’s Day and the following Monday is President’s Day. So the film will presumably benefit from the extra boost of some people being off work for the holiday.

Sonic the Hedgehog may not seem like a date night pick for Valentine’s Day, but Deadline notes that the under 25 male demographic will power Sonic to success.

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This was not Sonic the Hedgehog’s original release date of course. The film was previously set to open last November but was pushed to February following vociferous backlash to the first trailer that forced the filmmakers to rework the iconic hedgehog’s design in the film.

That may wind up being a good move on multiple accounts. The $95 million film received an extremely positive reaction on social media for its second trailer showing off Sonic’s new, more faithful design. Sonic the Hedgehog will now have the benefit of a holiday weekend and the goodwill it has received for the changes to the titular character seems like it could actually translate into box office success.

It’s looking like the speedster is heading towards a fitting first place finish at the box office Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend. Sonic the Hedgehog will face off with Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island with the horror adaptation of the 70s TV show looking at a $12 million to $16 million debut.

For those looking for something a bit more romantic, The Photograph, starring LaKeith Stanfield and Issa Rae also opens on Valentine’s Day and is tracking at $10 million to $14 million over the four-day weekend.

Sonic the Hedgehog races into theaters on February 14. Check out our 2020 Release Schedule to see what other movies you can look forward to this year.

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