Wedbush Morgan Security analyst Michael Pachter has some more industry wisdom to spread. However, he may not be entirely far off with his latest forecast. Pachter predicts that based on the dwindling popularity of Call of Duty, Black Ops 2 may not break sales records the way previous CoD games have.
Speaking with GameIndustry.biz International, Pachter stated that...
"I don't think Modern Warfare 3 is going to sell more than the last Black Ops, so I doubt that this one will break a record. I think that Call of Duty is a phenomenon, selling way more than 20 million units annually, and it's unrealistic to think that number can grow meaningfully with each annual release,"
The reason analysts are saying Modern Warfare 3 didn't sell as well as the original Call of Duty: Black Ops is because there was a 4% dropoff in year over year sales comparisons between Modern Warfare 3 and Black Ops. Quite naturally, this means that analysts like Michael Pachter are inclined to think that due to a poor economy, and a completely over-saturated console generation, it's leading people to believe that Black Ops 2 may not be breaking any sales ground.
Colin Sebastian of RW Baird concurs with Pachter, and also mentioned to GI.biz that...
We are forecasting Black Ops 2 to sell roughly the same number of copies as Modern Warfare 2 in 2011 [22 million copies worldwide - ed.]. Call of Duty is the only mass market core video game and the console industry continues to consolidate around a small number of top franchises. Halo 4 is a potential wrinkle in the ointment with a November launch, but on the flip side, GTA V likely not shipping until March helps,"
There are some rumors circulating that GTA V might make an October release, although the general consensus from most analysts and retailers is that the game won't be arriving until spring of 2013, so it's unlikely Rockstar's big open-world action game will be competing with Call of Duty. However, it is guaranteed that Halo 4 will be competing with Black ops 2 in November and that will have an effect on sales.
EEDAR analyst, Jesse Divinch, also chimed in and mentioned that Black Ops 2 might be the juggernaut a lot of people aren't expecting it to be, saying...
"Every year we question whether the Call of Duty franchises can set new records, and for the last four years they have proven us wrong. Personally, I wouldn't under-estimate Activision, even against the odds of a more torpid HD market this holiday season."
Well, only time will tell. But a lot of core gamers are a bit tired of Call of Duty but casuals eat it up greatly. Then again, there's also a lot of people looking forward to Black Ops 2 who thoroughly enjoyed the original Black Ops, and there's no telling whether or not enthralled core gamers and oblivious casuals will help boost Black ops 2 past another record breaking launch.