It’s time to start trimming the fat. More Oscar contenders are starting to screen for analysts and audience members, meaning the annual awards race is shifting into focus. There’s still plenty of time to debate the merits of the major players, but more and more minor players are falling by the wayside. The bloodletting is about to begin.

With this reshuffling comes a drastic rearrangement near the top of each chart. Certain movies have cemented their status as contenders, though "frontrunner" is a dangerous term (as Steve Jobs proved that claiming it can lead to a backfire). There are still a number of strong movies that need to screen between now and the end of the year. Something like The Revenant or The Hateful Eight could drop and completely change the landscape of the Oscar discussion. But fall film festival favorites like Room, Brooklyn and Spotlight continue to earn prestige points while working the circuit, while The Martian continues to be a force at the box office.

With that in mind, here’s where I think the Oscar contenders sit on November 11:
oscar winner prediction
BEST PICTURE
The Frontrunners

Brooklyn
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
The Contenders

Bridge Of Spies
Carol
Concussion
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Dark Horses

45 Years
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Black Mass
Creed
The Danish Girl
The End Of The Tour
In The Heart of the Sea
Love & Mercy
Straight Outta Compton
Suffragette
Trumbo
The Longshots

Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Youth

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