How Disney Is Trying To Move Forward With The Avatar Franchise (Despite Fire And Ash Not Making As Much)

There was a time when a movie making $1.4 billion worldwide would be treated like an unquestioned victory lap. Parade, confetti, maybe a theme park ride or two. With Avatar: Fire and Ash, the reaction has been a little more complicated. Yes, it made a massive amount of money. No, it didn’t hit the same towering heights as the earlier films. And now, instead of a straightforward “what’s next,” Disney and James Cameron are taking a moment to reassess what the future of Pandora actually looks like.

According to reporting from The Wrap, even Cameron has acknowledged that the next steps aren’t locked in, noting that a continuation is “likely but not 100%.” Behind the scenes, there are already conversations about how to make future entries shorter, more cost-effective, and a bit less risky to produce.

How Expectations Impacted Avatar: Fire & Ash’s Box Office

Part of what affected the third entry's box office performance was expectations. The original Avatar remains the highest-grossing movie of all time. Avatar: The Way of Water cleared more than $2 billion. That’s the standard Cameron set for himself.

So when Fire and Ash comes in closer to $1.4 billion, it creates a strange kind of perception problem. On paper, it’s a massive hit. In context, it looks like a step down. As Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore, put it:

“High-class problems,” they may be, but they’re still problems when you’re dealing with production budgets that reportedly hover around $350 million, plus marketing. The math gets tighter, even at that level.

This is all before you factor in shifting audience habits. The theatrical experience isn’t what it was in 2009, and even major franchises aren’t immune to that reality.

Disney’s Looking to Adjust The Way They Produce Avatar Films

One of the biggest takeaways from the current reporting is that Disney isn’t looking to abandon Avatar, but rather to adjust how installments in the franchise are produced.

That means finding ways to make future entries more efficient without losing what makes them feel like Avatar franchise installments in the first place. Easier said than done, considering how complex these productions are. The films rely on multiple layers of performance capture, digital environments, and years of post-production work involving hundreds of artists.

There’s also the question of scale. These movies have always been built as full theatrical events, the kind that practically demand the biggest screen possible—pulling back too far risks losing what makes them special.

At the same time, Disney is clearly weighing its broader portfolio. Marvel has been recalibrating after a rough stretch. Star Wars is trying a different approach with the upcoming The Mandalorian & Grogu. Pixar has been leaning into sequels, such as the 2026 calendar release of Toy Story 5. Nothing is operating on autopilot right now.

What Happens Next With Avatar

The interesting part is that, despite all this uncertainty, Avatar isn’t exactly going anywhere. Scripts for future films are already written. Portions of new installments have reportedly been shot. And internally, there’s still a belief that the franchise has long-term value, whether that’s through streaming, physical releases, or theme park expansions.

There’s even talk that Cameron might push forward more aggressively after Fire and Ash, treating it less like a slowdown and more like a reset. If anything, this could be the moment where the franchise pivots rather than fades.

Still, the bigger takeaway here is how much the definition of “success” has changed. A billion-dollar movie used to guarantee the next chapter. Now, not so much.

As we wait and see what comes next for the world of Pandora, there are always the first three installments, which are streaming with a Disney+ subscription.