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Dwayne Johnson's Rampage is the last big tentpole movie before Avengers: Infinity War arrives and takes over the universe. It will have two weekends as the newest studio blockbuster, but that opening weekend is, of course, key to the film's success and early estimates are that Rampage is looking to open with a solid, if not staggering, $35 million.
The early tracking reported by Variety is so early that it's possible it could shift in either direction between now and the film's April 13 release date. However, 44% are apparently showing "definite interest" in the movie which is a good sign for the movie loosely based on the classic 80s arcade game.
A $35 million opening weekend would put Rampage right alongside Dwayne Johnson's last release Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. That film opened with a $36 million weekend, though it did so in a more competitive holiday season right after the release of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Despite the competition, Jumanji went on to win the box office for several weekends in January and gross nearly $1 billion at the global box office. Certainly, New Line Cinema would love to see a performance like that out of Rampage, although, with some of the biggest movies of the year opening in May, it's going to be difficult for Rampage to be as sustaining.
The film did take one step to try and give itself some extra time to make money. Rampage was originally scheduled to open April 20, but following the decision by Disney to move Avengers: Infinity War up a week, Rampage did the same. This gives Rampage back it's cushion, meaning that there are no major releases coming to theaters the weekend after Rampage opens, likely giving it another bite at the box office apple.
An opening like this would also put Rampage in similar company as other big releases for this time of year. A Wrinkle in Time came in just short of $35 million in its opening weekend. Last weekend's Tomb Raider came in well below that mark, at just over $23 million. Pacific Rim: Uprising is looking to do numbers similar to Tomb Raider this weekend.
Rampage sees Dwayne Johnson as a primatologist who has a bond with a silverback gorilla named George. George comes into contact with a strange material which mutates him and increases his size to King Kong proportions. George and two other similarly sized animals then go on a, well, rampage, destroying cities in their path.
Dwayne Johnson has become one of the biggest and most bankable stars in Hollywood in recent years and is probably a large part of the reason that Rampage is looking at such a solid opening weekend. This will be one of two big releases for The Rock. His action movie Skyscraper hits theaters in July.