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For a while now there have been reasons to think that Blumhouse's new Halloween is probably going to be a huge hit when it opens in theaters. The real question has been: How big will David Gordon Green's film be? Now, we may have an answer, as Halloween looks to be headed toward one of the best horror openings of all time. In fact, it could make as much as $70 million.
This forecasted $70 million opening bow would give Halloween the second-best horror opening of all time after 2017's IT, which opened in September of last year to $123 million. A $70 million performance would also put Halloween in the record books alongside Venom for October performances in what is turning out to be a stellar month at the box office.
Compared to THR's cool $70 million opener, studio estimates have been more conservative. Those have put Halloween's opening weekend in the $50+ million range. Still, even if it underperforms, anything above or around $55 million would give Halloween the best opening since IT, surpassing this year's A Quiet Place and The Nun, which opened with $50.2 million and $53.8 million respectively.
A $70 million debut would also surpass Paranormal Activity 3, which debuted to $52.6 million in 2011 and Hannibal, which opened to $58 million in 2001 and enjoyed three weekends atop the box office.
A few weeks back, tracking had Halloween opening between $50 million to $85 million so this latest forecast ahead of the weekend is right in the middle of that range. Halloween only cost $10 million to produce; therefore, any of these numbers would seemingly make the film a huge hit. Still, there is evidence to suggest it could overperform.
As we know, box office tracking is an inexact science. Halloween could go higher or lower than $70 million. CinemaBlend's own Eric Eisenberg laid out his reasoning that it could crack $100 million and it does have a lot going for it. Pre-sales for the film are the best for any horror movie this year and it is arriving right as the weather is turning and theaters look nice and warm. Plus, people are getting excited to celebrate Halloween and part of that involves watching scary movies.
Reviews are also solid for the film, speaking to how it carries on the legacy of the first Halloween while also appealing to modern horror sensibilities. It is that legacy that also bodes well for Halloween. Horror is hot. period. right now and the top two horror openings of all time happening in back-to-back years definitely speaks to an overall climate of interest, but there is something to be said for nostalgia as well.
IT succeeded in no small part because it was a name brand that people recognized, had nostalgic sentiment towards and wanted to see retold. Halloween is a direct sequel to the original, not a reboot, but the similarities like it having a built-in audience are still there.
The box office prospects of Halloween are also likely buoyed by its competition, which frankly, aren't really there. Venom and A Star is Born are still out there, but most of the new releases are indie flicks. Plus, movies like The Old Man & the Gun and The Hate U Give, which are expanding this weekend, don't have the same mass market appeal as something like Halloween.
We'll see just how many records Michael Myers slashes through when Halloween opens this weekend. Check out our release schedule for all the biggest movies still to come in 2018.