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Avengers: Endgame was already looking to break records with its opening weekend, but now that China is joining the weekend fun, Avengers 4 could be flirting with close to $1 billion worldwide after its opening weekend. Do you think it has a shot of beating Avatar as the highest-grossing movie of all time (albeit not adjusted for inflation)? I say yes. The stakes aren't exactly Decimation-level if we're wrong, so why not guess away?
There are a lot of moving parts in play, but right now box office prognosticators are estimating Avengers: Endgame could see something in the range of $800-$850 million in its worldwide opening. (Deadline is currently going with $840M.) That opening would be from Wednesday, April 24 when China gets it, to Friday April 26 when we get it, through the end of that April 27-28 weekend.
China is the second-biggest box office market after the domestic North American (U.S./Canada) market. Avengers: Infinity War set a world record with its opening last year -- $640.4 million worldwide -- without the benefit of China being a part of that opening weekend. China didn't get the film until a couple of weeks later, when it added a $199.3 million opening to the tally. Put together, that would be around $840 million.
So that's where the current Endgame speculation number is coming from, since China will now be part of the opening weekend action instead of boosting the box office a bit later. But of course Infinity War and Endgame are two different films, beyond just their tones. Infinity War was two-and-a-half hours, but Endgame's runtime is just over three hours. That means potentially fewer runtimes in theaters each day, which would mean less money.
In that case, Avengers: Endgame wouldn't quite reach the lofty heights of $800-million-plus. And some folks have worried that, since China is getting it early, leaked copies of the movie may spread online and hurt the opening weekend. But HBO leaks didn't exactly hurt Game of Thrones last season, and who is going to watch a crappy copy of Endgame and skip the theatrical version?
Since we're all just reading tea leaves, I'm on the side of the higher numbers. Early box office estimates for Endgame's domestic opening are close to $300 million. That would top Infinity War's record $257 million last year. With the international figures looking extremely high, and everyone wanting to rush to see the movie ASAP to avoid spoilers, I do think we're looking at a record domestic and a record international opening weekend. I'll go ahead and guess $850 million combined worldwide -- with $295 million coming from the domestic box office. Quote me!
Avengers: Infinity War went on to make $2,048,359,754 worldwide, per Box Office Mojo. Avatar, which came out 10 years ago in 2009, has the worldwide record at $2,787,965,087. So that's what Endgame could potentially beat. After all, Avatar had a run time of 2 hours and 40 minutes. And Titanic passed $2 billion with a runtime of 3 hours, 14 minutes. I'm guessing Avengers: Endgame will set new records from start to finish, ending even past Avatar. What's your take?