The summer movie season is basically here. With Avengers: Endgame arriving in just a couple weeks the box office will begin to heat up as the studios all bring out major tentpole releases during this competitive season. One movie looking to make a huge impact when it arrives in a little over a month is Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and early tracking has the film looking at an opening weekend between $40 and $60 million.
While that's a perfectly respectable number for most summer movies, many are wondering if it might be a little low. 2014's Godzilla saw a domestic opening weekend of over $90 million, and so a drop to less than half that for the sequel would be a huge hit. However, it's possible that the movie to look at isn't the previous Godzilla but actually Kong: Skull Island. That film, from which King of the Monsters also follows, came out more recently and managed a $60 million opening, which could indicate people are becoming less interested in giant monster movies.
Part of the issue, of course, is competition. Godzilla had basically none. The biggest movie to open against it was Disney's Million Dollar Arm, which barely grossed $10 million in its opening weekend. The comedy hit Neighbors was number two at the box office that weekend in its second week. The only big tentpole release in competition was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which was in its third week, and had underperformed from the beginning.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters biggest opening weekend competition is the Elton John biopic Rocketman, which isn't expected to set the world on fire, but is looking at a $25 million opening weekend, far better than what the previous Godzilla's opening weekend competition was able to muster.
In addition, there will likely be significant hold over business from the Memorial Day Weekend releases from the week before, including Disney's live-action Aladdin.
BoxOfficePro simply suggests that the Godzilla/Kong franchise is losing steam. If that's the case, it's not great news for Godzilla Vs. Kong. The movie recently wrapped its Australian production with an eye toward a release next year. Getting it in front of the cameras so soon after Godzilla: King of the Monsters was clearly an attempt to strike while the iron was still hot, but it may have cooled too much already.
Of course, these numbers are still incredibly early and subject to change. As we get closer to release many who might be lukewarm on the film may realize they're actually much more interested in it. At this point, it's probably tough to judge the public's feelings toward any movie that isn't called Avengers: Endgame. Perhaps, by the time we get to the end of May Godzilla will be a true king once again and bring in a massive opening weekend.,