Will Toy Story 4 Cross The $1 Billion Mark?

Toy Story 4 characters in the sky

Every Toy Story movie has grown in worldwide grosses, with Toy Story 3 making history for Pixar when it passed the $1 billion mark. So will that be the case for Toy Story 4 or will this film be the growth exception?

As of Sunday, August 4, Toy Story 4 has made $959,250,743 worldwide, from $410 million at the domestic box office and $549.2 million from the foreign markets.

That total includes the roughly $7.15 million the fourth Toy Story movie just made at the domestic box office from August 2-4, 2019. That placed Toy Story 4 at #5 on the box office charts, with a drop of 31.6% from last week, which is normal. The movie only lost 385 screens from last week to now, and it's still playing in a very healthy 3,225 theaters. That's a lot of screens for a movie that's been out since June 21.

So Toy Story 4 needs about $40 million to pass the $1 billion mark, but it would take over $100 million to pass Toy Story 3. I can see it easily tackling the former goal, but I'm not sure it has legs strong enough to pass Toy Story 3. I may be wrong, though, since the movie is far from done its run. It has already opened in many markets overseas, but not all. Then again, 2019 has been an incredibly competitive year at the worldwide box office, and at some point Toy Story 4 is going to have to get out of the way for other major movies.

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Here are the worldwide grosses for the Toy Story franchise so far (unadjusted for inflation), per Box Office Mojo:

Toy Story (1995) - $373,554,033Toy Story 2 (1999) - $497,366,869Toy Story 3 (2010) - $1,066,969,703Toy Story 4 (2019) - $959,250,743 (so far)

All four Toy Story movies have either 100% or near 100% ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, and three have "A" CinemaScores, with Toy Story 2 earning a rare "A+."

As Forbes noted, the Toy Story franchise is on the verge of crossing $3 billion total. It's currently at $2,929,400,000 worldwide. Will Toy Story 4 be able to make the $70+ million needed to push the entire franchise past the $3B mark? Probably. Definitely? I tend to be cautious and under-estimate, but considering it's still opening in markets around the world, and still high in the top 10 domestically, it's a decent bet.

Most of Toy Story 4's 2019 Disney/Marvel buddies have already passed the $1 billion mark -- including Avengers: Endgame, Captain Marvel, Aladdin, Spider-Man: Far From Home, and The Lion King. (Bless poor Dumbo. He never stood a chance.) Aladdin came out in late May and kept quietly making money every week until it passed $1B, and now it's at $1.025 billion and still going. It's at #9 this week on the domestic box office chart, just a few places behind Toy Story 4. So it makes sense to think Toy Story 4 will also pass $1B, it's just not operating at the lightning speed of the Marvel movies or The Lion King.

Unlike some blockbusters, which see a huge gap between the domestic and foreign box offices, it's pretty close for Toy Story 4 with $410M/$549M so far. Contrast that to Aladdin with $350.3 million domestic/$675.2 million foreign. Also, Toy Story 3 made $415 million domestic and $651.9 million at the foreign box office. So Toy Story 4 will be able to pass Toy Story 3 at the U.S./Canada box office, but it has some making up to do overseas.

Do you think Toy Story 4 will make the $40 million it needs from here to make $1 billion? What about the $70 billion for the franchise to pass $3 billion? Does it have a shot of topping Toy Story 3? Vote in the poll below.

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Gina Carbone

Gina grew up in Massachusetts and California in her own version of The Parent Trap. She went to three different middle schools, four high schools, and three universities -- including half a year in Perth, Western Australia. She currently lives in a small town in Maine, the kind Stephen King regularly sets terrible things in, so this may be the last you hear from her.