Oscar Eye: Can The Fighter Finally Get Christian Bale An Oscar Nomination?

Last night at Los Angeles's AFI Fest the veil was finally lifted on one of the last big question marks of the Oscar season, David O. Russell's boxing drama The Fighter. An ecstatic response or total dead silence would have helped a lot in figuring out the shape of the Best Picture race, but of course, it's not that easy at all. We're looking at everything from flat-out raves that "erase all doubt" about its Best Picture prospects to a more cautious "it's possible." Either way nobody seems to be talking about The Fighter as a winner of anything beyond Christian Bale, whose supporting performance as a crack addict and former boxer is reportedly committed and moving.

So with The Fighter out there-- I'm seeing it next Monday-- it's really just True Grit playing keepaway as a possible surprise to turn over the apple cart. It's hard not to feel a little disappointed at this stage in the season, when you've unwrapped all your Christmas presents and feel that tiny twinge of despair that there's no longer something mysterious to look forward to. Sure, the fall movie seas still has plenty more to offer, from next week's Harry Potter to the looming mystery of Tron: Legacy, but when it comes to the Oscar race, what we see right now is for the most part what we get.

There have been a few stories and mini-scandals with ties to the Oscar race, and for lack of a more overarching narrative this week, let's go over a few of them:

  • The King's Speech, a presumed Best Picture frontrunner and a genuinely terrific film, has been slapped with both a godawful poster and an R-rating on a film that is very tame and demure beyond a scene that, as described in the British rating, "uses profanity in the context of speech therapy." At this Sunday's junket for the film both star Colin Firth and Tom Hooper railed against the rating, but like fellow awards contenders Made in Dagenham and Blue Valentine, it's probably stuck with the MPAA's fair judgment. Honestly, I doubt it will have too much impact on the movie one way or another-- The King's Speech is a movie for grown-ups, and not something teenagers are likely to see unless dragged-- but it's just another example of the ridiculous standards set up by the MPAA to "protect" America's children.


  • I finally saw Love and Other Drugs, and while it's a smooth and sometimes very affecting dramedy, it doesn't feel like Oscar stuff in the slightest, especially with the fluffy The Kids Are All Right more solidly in the picture. Anne Hathaway's Best Actress chances are also pretty much nil given the competition. I like the movie OK but it's kind of nice to have one less thing to worry about.


  • 127 Hours opened in limited release last weekend amid a flurry of publicity and scored a strong $66,213 per-theater average, as well as continued buzz thanks to more stories of people fainting. No, you don't usually think of Academy members flocking to movies so hardcore that people faint, but as we've discussed 127 Hours is part of the conversation no matter what, and any buzz is good buzz right now.


  • In the next round of Fox Searchlight publicity efforts, they've set up a killer viral site for Black Swan. The movie comes out December 1, so expect the conversation to start ramping up soon.


  • Unlike 127 Hours, though, For Colored Girls did not fair so well upon its release, bringing in just $20 million so far, which is good but not great by Tyler Perry standards. Added to the fact that not that many critics stepped wholeheartedly behind Perry's brash, singular, deeply flawed film and the Supporting Actress race may have just lost a few contenders, though I can't quite admit it yet. Truthfully, the writing is on the wall-- Lionsgate also has Rabbit Hole to get out there, and a strong Supporting Actress contender in Dianne Wiest, who they won't want to compete against. Sigh. Anika Noni Rose will get her due someday.

OK, on to the charts. I'm trying to pare down a lot of the more outsidery contenders, and account for the impact of The Fighter's success as well, particularly in the acting categories.

oscar winner prediction

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BEST PICTURE

Between the Mortal Lock and Likely Contender categories we have 11 films, and of the bunch Another Year is starting to feel wobbly, just a little too low-key and English. It's almost time to start picking my predicted nominees in the bunch, and when that happens Another Year may be the one to go. Elsewhere I've tried to start relentlessly pruning the actual contenders, because no, nobody actually thinks Wall Street 2 or Never Let Me Go can get a Best Picture nod. Onward and upward.

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The King's Speech

Inception

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

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127 Hours

Another Year

Black Swan

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

True Grit

Winter's Bone

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Fair Game

Made in Dagenham

Rabbit Hole

Shutter Island

Somewhere

The Way Back

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Blue Valentine

Biutiful

Conviction

Country Strong

The Ghost Writer

Hereafter

How Do You Know?

Love and Other Drugs

Secretariat

The Town

The Tourist

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BEST DIRECTOR

The ecstatic response to The Fighter may make Russell more of a Best Director contender than previously assumed, knocking out weaker competition like Mike Leigh or--sob!-- Darren Aronofsky. But if the praise continues to be just for the performers, that may not pan out. In other considerations, I interviewed The King's Speech director, and though he's young--38-- and looks even younger (he's pictured above), he's got the kind of poise and affability that will serve him well on the Oscar party circuit. Not quite at Mortal Lock yet, but almost there.

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Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

David Fincher, The Social Network

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Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Mike Leigh, Another Year

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

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Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

Sofia Coppola, Somewhere

Clint Eastwood, Hereafter

Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, The Tourist

Peter Weir, The Way Back

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Ben Affleck, The Town

Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Biuitiful

John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole

Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls

Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer

Mark Romanek, Never Let Me Go

Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

Oliver Stone, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Edward Zwick, Love and Other Drugs

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BEST ACTOR

Early word on The Fighter says Wahlberg is the least impressive of the lineup, and since I wasn't expecting him to be that strong anyway, down he goes to Still In The Running. Otherwise there's not much change, as Franco and Firth continue to be the only performers anyone is really talking about. Oh, and Jake Gyllenhaal is outta there-- I had entirely forgotten I had him listed as a contender to begin with.

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Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

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Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

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Johnny Depp, The Tourist

Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception

Stephen Dorff, Somewhere

Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole

Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

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Jim Broadbent, Another Year

Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

Ben Stiller, Greenberg

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BEST ACTRESS

I really hope Sally Hawkins stays in there for Made in Dagenham, since it's a really enjoyable movie that she's great in, but I feel a lot of silence surrounding that performance. Coming back up over and over again, though, is Jennifer Lawrence, who is most certainly this year's ingenue and could take it all if Focus and Searchlight aren't careful to keep their ladies (Bening and Portman) in the spotlight.

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Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

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Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

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Diane Lane, Secretariat

Hilary Swank, Conviction

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know?

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Gwyneth Paltrow, Country Strong

Tilda Swinton, I Am Love

Naomi Watts, Fair Game

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bale seems to be the major takeaway from The Fighter, and though I can't move him up to Mortal Lock until I've seen the movie, I can only assume he's safe for a nomination there. I'm also hearing a lot about Colin Farrell's performance in The Way Back being the real takeaway, and it's possible to see him getting in even if the movie doesn't hit as hard-- that Best Actor in a Comedy win for In Bruges at the Globes a few years back proves they still like him.

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Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

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Christian Bale, The Fighter

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Justin Timberlake, The Social Network

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Michael Douglas, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Colin Farrell, The Way Back

Ed Harris, The Way Back

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Dustin Hoffman, Barney's Version

Bob Hoskins, Made in Dagenham

Sean Penn, Fair Game

Jeremy Renner, The Town

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Josh Brolin, True Grit

Vincent Cassel, Black Swan

Matt Damon, True Grit

Armie Hammer, The Social Network

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm perfectly happy to bump Amy Adams and Melissa Leo up to Likely Contenders, because the buzz for them in The Fighter is that strong and the category is still so tricky. I'll probably have to take out the For Colored Girls candidates at some point, but only if it becomes clear that Lionsgate really, really isn't going to attempt an Oscar campaign for any of them.

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Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech

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Amy Adams, The Fighter

Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version

Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

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Kimberly Elise, For Colored Girls

Thandie Newton, For Colored Girls

Rosamund Pike, Made in Dagenham

Phylicia Rashad, For Colored Girls

Anika Noni Rose, For Colored Girls

Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy

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Marion Cotillard, Inception

Elle Fanning, Somewhere

Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back

Sissy Spacek, Get Low

Mia Wasikowska, The Kids Are All Right

Katey Rich

Staff Writer at CinemaBlend