When Jurassic World debuted three years ago, the enduring appeal of dinosaurs and the nostalgic potency of Jurassic Park paid off at the box office when the reboot-quel opened to a record-breaking $208.8 million. That was good enough for the biggest box office opening of all time until two Star Wars saga films and this year's Avengers: Infinity War surpassed it. When the sequel, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom debuts this weekend, it probably won't fare quite as well, with tracking predicting that the film will open with between $130-$140 million domestically.
Of course, $130-$140 million is still a big number and nothing to sneeze at. It's just not as unprecedented as its predecessor. Like a T-rex, it's not as big as a Titanosaur, but it's still pretty big. An opening in this range would put Fallen Kingdom somewhere in the high to mid 20's on the all-time domestic opening weekend list, while Jurassic World sits at #4. As noted by THR, along with the tracking numbers, 2015's Jurassic World enjoyed a similar situation as Star Wars: The Force Awakens in that it heralded the return of a long-dormant, but beloved franchise with years of pent-up nostalgia and demand. So it is natural that without such an extended build, the sequel will make a little less. The Last Jedi's opening weekend fell 11% from The Force Awakens' and if the tracking proves accurate, Fallen Kingdom will open 31%-36% behind Jurassic World, which went on to gross $1.671 billion worldwide.
Love of dinosaurs isn't exclusive to North America; it is universal, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is already off to a strong start overseas. The film started opening in various territories two weeks ago, and it has so far made $435 million. As far as competition is concerned, no wide release film is opening opposite Fallen Kingdom this weekend, which is a smart move of self-preservation to avoid becoming dino droppings. However, Incredibles 2, which debuted to a record-shattering $182.7 million last weekend, is poised for a huge second weekend of around $80-$90 million. That competition will inevitably draw away some families, especially for those with little ones for whom the sight on an Indoraptor trying to snack on a little girl might be a bit too much.
As always with tracking, it can be spot-on, way off or anywhere in between. Movies like Solo: A Star Wars Story opened way under expectations while Incredibles 2 was expected to open around $140 million at one point, and we all saw how that turned out. So we'll keep you updated as preview showings and weekend numbers begin to come in and we get a better idea of just how big this dino-filled blockbuster will be at the box office.