Time marches on, and with each day that passes, James Bond fans come step closer to Daniel Craig’s swan song in the 007 franchise. With No Time To Die opening in the second weekend of April, the long term projections for the film’s first weekend at the domestic box office are now in. And if this data is correct, the film will see itself falling into the $75 million and $100 million range those opening days.
There are some interesting factors to keep in mind with this evaluation of No Time To Die’s domestic opening weekend. Looming largely among them is the fact that modern Bond films traditionally open in November, which makes No Time To Die a bit of a trek out into unknown territory.
Bond Is Out Of His Comfort Zone In April
As various shakeups, such as director Cary Joji Fukunaga being hired to replace previous directorial candidate Danny Boyle, required the release date be moved from its usual home, this has presented No Time To Die a challenging question answer: can James Bond perform in the run up to, and also during, this year’s summer blockbuster season?
Even in the short term, the 25th James Bond movie will have to compete with the likes of Fox/Disney’s The New Mutants, which finally opens in theaters the week prior to No Time To Die, as well as both Trolls World Tour and Antlers, which drop in the week that follows. While those film’s aren’t exactly a 1:1 competitor for 007, there’s a coalition of moviegoers that could draw away from this movie’s prospects to a certain degree.
That said, brand recognition and a new tease that states “The 25th film will change everything” could be enough to stir the pot for fans and newcomers alike to check out No Time To Die. Of course, that’s on top of the ever present fact that this is Daniel Craig’s final film in the James Bond series. So that could also serve as fuel for the fire.
Could No Time To Die Bring In The Highest Opening Ever For A James Bond Movie?
If No Time To Die manages to stick to that particular projection, there’s a decent chance we could see a new record being set for the James Bond series’ domestic opening statistics. With 2012’s Skyfall reaching for the stars with a U.S. opening of $88.4 million, that film not only celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Bond films in a particularly spectacular fashion, it also became the largest opening for a Bond film ever.
Acting as what looks to be the apex of Craig-era Bond, that film was a far cry from the opening of Casino Royale in 2006, which only brought in $40.8 million. Coming off of the Pierce Brosnan era of films, which ended with the rather lackluster Die Another Day, Daniel Craig’s first film as James Bond saw itself narrowly edged out of the top spot that weekend… by George Miller’s eco-family friendly film Happy Feet.
With a range of $75 million to $100 million being estimated for No Time To Die’s domestic opening, and Spectre nabbing a $70.4 million debut in 2015, there’s a chance that history could be made yet again. That is, if Spectre’s overall lukewarm response from fans and critics alike doesn’t bring this next film down a peg.
One last factor worth considering: don’t even think of No Time To Die breaking the record for an opening weekend in April. While the film does stand to be a potential smash hit, it would need to exceed a little film known as Avengers: Endgame to claim the title, and that film set the bar at $357.1 million for its domestic opening.
No Matter The Result, Daniel Craig Has Broken A Long Standing James Bond Record
There’s actually another record that can be claimed as broken, thanks to Box Office Pro’s write up on how much No Time To Die could take in for its first weekend of business. While Daniel Craig is still behind on the late Roger Moore’s record setting seven installments as 007, Craig has now held the role for the longest period of time.
While Roger Moore’s tenure lasted for lasted for 12 years, between 1973 and 1985, it’s been 14 years since Daniel Craig was first met with jeers of “James Blonde” upon debuting in 2006’s soft reboot, Casino Royale. Now, with fans having to look forward to a new age of Bond, it’s a confirmed fact that Craig has truly left his mark on the series.
No Time To Die is certainly going to try and help his tenure go out with a bang, as the film has also weighed in as the most expensive James Bond movie ever made. Typically, a movie with a $250 million price tag would be something to fear, but not in the world of James Bond, as that figure only eclipses Spectre by a paltry $5 million.
Also, the last two Bond films have been rather large-sized hits, with that particular predecessor ringing up $880 million in worldwide grosses. The only thing that could prevent No Time To Die from at least doubling its grosses is a disaster, and while that’s a prospect that’s never truly off the table, the odds are rather slim.
So whether the box office shakes, or stirs, out the way the folks behind No Time To Die would like, there is still history being made. However, as with any opening weekend estimates, it’s a good idea to keep in mind that those numbers could change in either direction in the near future.
With both Sonic The Hedgehog zooming past early estimates to land the highest domestic opening for a video game movie, and Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey falling short of its modest projections, there are lessons out there that tell us anything can happen at the box office. Even if the world does indeed know your name.
No Time To Die will be released on April 3 in the UK, with the domestic debut slated for April 10.
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Mike Reyes is the Senior Movie Contributor at CinemaBlend, though that title’s more of a guideline really. Passionate about entertainment since grade school, the movies have always held a special place in his life, which explains his current occupation. Mike graduated from Drew University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science, but swore off of running for public office a long time ago. Mike's expertise ranges from James Bond to everything Alita, making for a brilliantly eclectic resume. He fights for the user.