Superman Is Polling High, But How Much Will It Actually Make Opening Weekend?

James Gunn’s upcoming Superman is nearing its 2025 movie release and it’s flying high in fan hype (and a few online fan wars), but when it comes to cold, hard box office projections, the red-caped reboot could be facing a reality check faster than a speeding bullet. Supes is polling high, but how much will it actually make opening weekend? Let's break it down.

Superman’s Initial Box Office Tracking

According to Deadline, early tracking indicates the film will open between $125 million and $145 million, based on NRG data. However, some distributors believe that number is more likely to fall within a more grounded $90 million to $125 million range. That’s certainly solid for the majority of post-pandemic summer movies—but for the first official entry in Gunn’s DCU Chapter One: Gods and Monsters? It’s perhaps less than the record-breaking slam-dunk some fans are expecting.

Here’s where things get more complicated. The upcoming DC movie is showing strong “unaided awareness,” which is an industry measurement for whether someone can name a project off the top of their head when ansked about anticipated movies. However, its “first choice” numbers — a key metric in predicting how many people will actually get off the couch and into theaters on opening weekend — are trailing behind the likes of Thor: Love and Thunder and The Batman. Even Captain America: Brave New World, which underperformed with an $88 million launch, boasted a “first choice” rating that ranked 71% higher than Supes' at the same point in its rollout.

That comparison has some insiders nervous, especially given Superman’s top-tier name recognition and legacy weight, not to menton the all-star cast led by David Corenswet, with well-known director James Gunn putting it all together.

Why I’m Not Worried About Supes’ Box Office

In fairness, I don’t think Superman’s "low" tracking is about superhero fatigue (at least not entirely). It’s about timing, reviews, and urgency. The Deadline piece emphasizes that a lot of the movie’s make-or-break momentum will come down to word of mouth and last-minute promotional blitzes. Amazon’s Prime Early Access screenings on July 8 reportedly sold out fast, suggesting an eager core fanbase, but the mainstream crowd may be holding back until they hear if the film delivers.

That may be true, but let’s not forget that Superman has nearly 90 years of history and one of the most passionate fanbases in pop culture. The die-hards will show up, no question. Even the vocal Snyderverse loyalists, many of whom have loudly criticized the reboot, are likely to buy a ticket, if only out of morbid curiosity. And frankly, based on the trailers and early footage alone, Superman looks strong enough to outperform current expectations.

The good news? Gunn has a track record of exceeding expectations. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (available to stream with a Disney+ subscription) was predicted to underperform and ended up with one of Marvel’s best post-Endgame holds. If early reviews are strong and CinemaScore remains at an A or higher, Superman could surpass the conservative $125M ceiling and soar even higher.

The Final Verdict

Historically, Supes has had mixed box office results. Man of Steel opened with $116 million and went on to top out around $670 million worldwide. Batman v. Superman came in hotter with $166M domestically on opening weekend, though that film also had the draw of the Bat, the Wonder, and a decade of pent-up crossover cravings. This new solo outing doesn’t have that crutch.

The added pressure? This is the first real swing for Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC Studios. Fans and industry insiders alike are watching not just for ticket sales, but for signs of whether the new DCU can actually compete with Marvel in the post-Endgame, post-multiverse burnout era.

Superman might not break records. But that’s OK—because what it really needs to do is stick the landing, ignite goodwill, and feel like the start of something big. A $125M+ debut is respectable. But a strong second weekend, fueled by audience love and good reviews? That’s the real superpower.

Until then, all eyes are on July 11. Cape or no cape, this flight path is far from set.