After a few weeks of battles between Thunderbolts* and Sinners and then a strong debut by Final Destination, Hollywood gave us an intriguing showdown this weekend. Disney opened the Lilo & Stitch live action adaptation against the debut of Paramount’s Mission: Impossible Final Reckoning. Studio insiders were hoping both movies would be able to attract separate audiences, as well as a more limited group interested in double featuring, as so many did with Barbenheimer.
We won’t know exactly how many did the full StitchPossible this weekend, but we do know a lot of people showed up for both options. Each film was able to collect more than $60M from its opening weekend, though one of the two was able to generate a whole lot more. You can check out the estimated box office top 10 numbers floating around this morning and then some fuller analysis in subsequent paragraphs afterwards…
Title | Weekend Gross | Domestic Gross | LW | THTRS | Row 0 - Cell 5 |
1. Lilo & Stitch | $145,500,000 | $145,500,000 | N/A | 4,410 | Row 1 - Cell 5 |
2. Mission: Impossible 8 | $63,000,000 | $63,000,000 | N/A | 3,857 | Row 2 - Cell 5 |
3. Final Destination: Bloodlines | $19,650,000 | $89,782,000 | 1 | 3,523 | Row 3 - Cell 5 |
4. Thunderbolts* | $9,164,000 | $171,371,728 | 2 | 3,180 | Row 4 - Cell 5 |
5. Sinners | $8,750,000 | $256,551,000 | 3 | 2,632 | Row 5 - Cell 5 |
6. The Last Rodeo | $5,266,330 | $5,266,330 | N/A | 2,205 | Row 6 - Cell 5 |
7. Friendship | $4,591,384 | $6,634,820 | 7 | 1,055 | Row 7 - Cell 5 |
8. A Minecraft Movie | $2,210,000 | $420,843,000 | 4 | 2,087 | Row 8 - Cell 5 |
9. The Accountant 2 | $1,970,000 | $62,871,750 | 5 | 2,002 | Row 9 - Cell 5 |
10. Hurry Up Tomorrow | $740,000 | $4,813,964 | 5 | 1,508 | Row 10 - Cell 5 |
So, Is This A Surprise?
This weekend may have been talked about as a showdown between Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible 8, but the winner has been pretty obvious for awhile. The buzz around the Disney adaptation has been really strong for months and tracking on early ticket purchasing made it clear it was going to put up a really big number this weekend.
After it made almost $15M in previews on Thursday, there was some speculation it could even put up a $200M extended holiday box office weekend. That's unlikely to happen, but those estimates were always optimistic thinking anyway. The goal for Disney was likely to get over $150M over the course of the weekend, and it'll surpass that benchmark easily on Monday, likely ending up more in the $175M range.
Mission: Impossible will likely surpass $75,000,000 over the course of the long weekend, and while that's not anywhere close to Lilo & Stitch, it should still be considered a good start. The film was expensive to produce on account of all the practical stunts Tom Cruise always does, but it should have extended life at the box office and a lot of ways to make money after that theatrical release is done. Each new entry into the franchise reportedly boosts the streams on all the other movies, creating a positive cycle.
How Should We Feel About Thunderbolts*?
A lot has been made about where Marvel is at as a franchise right now. The studio has been open about slowing down its production schedule and not making movies for the sake of making movies. Clearly, fans are no longer going to see everything the studio puts out. Instead, they're choosing based on the specific title.
That worked out fine for several high profile sequels over the past few years (Black Panther 2, Guardians 3, Deadpool & Wolverine), but it also left a lot of titles struggling to get over $200,000,000 at the domestic box office. Captain America 4 barely got there, and recently entries like The Marvels and Eternals didn't really come close. Thunderbolts* should get there, which is a solid accomplishment for characters many fans aren't familiar with. Strong reviews and fan scores should also help everything upcoming on Marvel's release schedule, even if some titles were recently delayed.
Next week, we're scheduled to get A24's buzzy new horror movie Bring Her Back, as well as the new Karate Kid. Both of those movies should do solid business at the box office, but it'll be interesting to see whether either can compete with either Mission or Lilo on their second weekends. Eric will be back next week to let you know.
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