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A Star is Born has been part of the Oscar conversation since before it came out, but just which awards might it walk away with when the show airs next year? A decent chunk of people think that it's going to very nearly sweep the acting categories as 34 percent in a recent poll think A Star is Born will take three of the four acting awards and almost two-thirds believing it will take at least two. And all this is on top of Best Picture
If this happened, A Star is Born would be only the third movie in history to take three acting Oscars, after A Streetcar Named Desire in 1951 and Network in 1977.
Both Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga are favored to win their respective acting categories according to the site. Sam Elliott is actually in the number two slot overall based on the way the Best Supporting Actor race is handicapped, with Timothy Chalamet's role in Beautiful Boy the current favorite, but Elliot is still a strong number two, so there are a lot of people who think he could take it.
The other major award that A Star is Born is currently favored to win is Best Picture, which is an award that neither of the films that previously won three acting awards were able to bring home.
There are a couple other major awards that A Star is Born is likely to be nominated for. Bradley Cooper is in the hunt for Best Director as well as Best Adapted Screenplay, though the film is not favored in those categories.
While this may not be the most scientific way to break down the Oscar race, it is, in the end, simply a poll of people who don't necessarily look at the race the same way the actual voters will, but it's clear that a lot of people who are interested in the race itself think A Star is Born is going to be the movie to beat.
On the one hand, people responding to a poll about the Oscar race might be more discerning than your average moviegoer. Most of the people who have seen A Star is Born probably aren't closely following its Oscar chances. Having said that, the fact that A Star is Born has been a box office hit as well would indicate that the film is more popular with the average movie fan than your normal awards contender. That's something that, at least in theory, could skew these results.
There's also a lot of potential awards winners that haven't even hit a limited, much less wide, release yet, which means there's a lot that people haven't seen. Once some of these other films hit theaters it's quite possible that a poll like this could have very different results.