Back in October, we got our first predictions of what Warner Bros.' Aquaman could make in its opening weekend. The long-range tracking on the DCEU film had it pegged somewhere in the $40 million to $60 million range. Now it's looking like those super early projections may have been a bit low and Aquaman may actually cross $100 million.
Box office analysts who spoke with The Wrap indicated that Aquaman could be the first film to enjoy a $100+ million opening weekend domestically since all the way back in June, when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom debuted to $148 million. The official tracking doesn't come out until Thursday, so that should give us an even clearer picture at exactly where Aquaman might land.
As we've often seen, tracking isn't an exact science, and there are still a few weeks where things can change for the DCEU film in either direction. But whether Aquaman opens domestically above or below $100 million, the point is that the outlook on the film is rosier than it was just a month ago when it was tracking at $40 million to $60 million.
An opening in the $40 million to $60 million range would be in line with the Phase 1 Marvel movies, but it is certainly not a number that is going to blow people out of the water, especially for a film this big and this important.
This is the first DCEU film since the financially and critically disappointing Justice League, and you have to think that Warner Bros. is hoping Arthur Curry can help begin to turn the ship around for the beleaguered DCEU. Plus, have you seen the latest trailer? This thing looks expensive.
If Aquaman does cross $100 million, it will be a stupendous achievement, not just in its own right, but in light of the positively absurd amount of competition it will face in what may be the most stacked weekend of the year.
Disney's family-friendly sequel Mary Poppins Returns arrives in theaters on the Wednesday before Aquaman opens, and it is sure to provide stiff competition. Opening opposite Aquaman is also the Transformers spinoff film Bumblebee and that's not to mention the previous week's releases like Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse that should still be drawing in audiences.
There are plenty of reasons though to be bull(shark)ish on Aquaman's prospects. Polling indicates that women are especially interested in the film and the final trailer is the best sales pitch yet for the underwater adventure. And what's even more encouraging is that unlike Justice League, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad, word of mouth on Aquman should be good.