Rather than adapt all of Frank Herbert’s Dune into one movie like David Lynch did in the ‘80s, Denis Villeneueve opted to spread his take on the seminal sci-fi novel over two movies. Fortunately for him, Dune was a critical and commercial success in 2021, and now Dune: Part Two is just a few weeks away from hitting theaters. There’s no question this is one of the biggest releases on the 2024 movies schedule, and arguably the biggest to come out so far this year, but unusually, the opening weekend box office predictions for this second chapter are all over the place.
As reported by Deadline, conversation estimates place Dune: Part Two pulling in around $65 million during its first days on the big screen. Other sources, however, believe this movie could make somewhere more in the neighborhood of $75-$80+ million during opening weekend. That’s a big gap, although not terribly surprising given the fandom surrounding Frank Herbert’s original Dune stories and all the casual moviegoers who enjoyed Denis Villenueve first Dune movie.
Either way, Dune: Part Two’s opening box office haul looks like it will be a major increase from the $41 million Dune pulled in during that same time frame. But let’s not forget that Dune was impacted by the day-and date release plan Warner Bros. Pictures implemented for its 2021 movies, meaning they hit theaters at the same time they were made available to then-HBO Max subscribers. Part Two is now opening at a time when the pandemic isn’t throttling the theatrical industry, so if anything, we should be commending Dune for doing so well in theaters during a tougher time.
As of this writing, the annual box office rests at $582 million, 13% behind last year, which Deadline attributes to a “lack of tentpoles.” So Dune: Part Two coming along at the beginning of March could positively shake things up, although it’s certainly not the only tentpole release lined up for the month. Kung Fu Panda 4 comes out on March 8, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire arrives on March 22 and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire follows on March 29.
In addition to Dune: Part Two already having racked up an impressive amount of ticket presales, 10 minutes of the movie were attached to Dune’s IMAX rerelease in late January, and there were a lot of positive reactions to the footage.To put it bluntly, there’s a lot working in Part Two’s favor right now, so while it’s hard to say which opening weekend prediction will come true, I’d be shocked if it ends up underwhelming during those first days rather than exceeding expectations.
Along with familiar faces like Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson and Josh Brolin reprising their respective roles from Dune, the Dune: Part Two cast includes newcomers like Austin Butler as Feyd Rautha, Florence Pugh as Princess Irulan, Léa Seydoux as Lady Margot Fenring and Christopher Walken as Emperor Shaddam IV. In addition to his directorial duties, Denis Villenueve co-wrote the script with Jon Spaihts. While nothing is set in stone yet, Villenueve has also expressed interest in making Dune 3, a.k.a. a film adaptation of Dune Messiah. If that project was greenlit though, the filmmaker has said that it would be his last Dune movie.
Dune: Part Two opens in theaters Friday, March 1. In addition to the first Dune movie still being available on Max, Netflix subscribers can still stream it until February 29.
