It's officially March, which, among other things, means that we're that much closer to saying goodbye to Hugh Jackman as Wolverine. But just how much of our money will he be taking with him when he leaves? March is set to be a summer-like month with its massive movie openings but it's looking like Logan is going to be a difficult film to beat with an opening weekend somewhere in the neighborhood of $170 million.
While Logan is the first R-rated outing for Wolverine, it doesn't appear that the restricted audience will slow the film down at all. Current projections, according to Deadline, have the film opening with $65 million here in North America. When combined with the $105 million the film is expected to bring in across the rest of the world, it's looking like it will be a good weekend for Fox.
The $65 million domestic gross would only be the second highest of the Wolverine franchise as X-Men: Origins: Wolverine opened with $85 million in 2009. To be fair, nobody really expected that one to be as bad as it was. On the flip side, Logan is sitting was a 93% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, so the positive buzz can only increase that number.
The other place where Logan has the potential to do better than expected is China. While the nation generally embraces Hollywood films they don't always embrace the same ones that are popular here. However, the previous X-Men and Wolverine movies have done fairly well there, leading many to believe that Logan could exceed the currently projected $70 million in China.
Deadpool previously proved that an R-rating attached to a superhero movie is no real barrier to box office success. An opening around $170 million certainly shows that to be the case here as well. If anything, the lukewarm response of the last X-Men movie, X-Men: Apocalypse might have more to do with Logan projecting a domestic opening smaller that X-Men: Origins. Still, this shows just how important the rest of the world is becoming when you look at the box office.
In the end, however, it's not all about the opening weekend. Logan is looking to be truly a very good movie which will likely bring more viewers to the film over the long hall, and potentially repeat viewings for the die hard fan. If that happens Logan could put up some serious box office totals before it's all said and done.