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Spoiler alert: This article contains spoilers from the Big Brother live feeds, including who won Head of Household, who was nominated, and who won the Veto. We also have some speculation about who the primary target is this week, and whether or not the Veto will be used...
Head of HouseholdLiz
Won the Veto
After the Double Eviction on Thursday's Big Brother, Liz went on to win the Head of Household competition that followed. The feeds don't show us competitions, so I don't know exactly what it was, but the houseguests were studying days and events, so it might've been something related to knowing what days things happened. Liz won it and she, her sister and Austin decided to target Johnny Mac and Becky. Vanessa was in Liz's ear right away that Becky needs to go home, but it seemed like Austwins were quietly deciding that Johnny Mac was the real target. But that was before nominations.
Liz gave Johnny Mac a chance to talk to her about things before nominations, and asked about the weird argument Clay started between Vanessa, James and Johnny Mac the day Clay was evicted. Johnny Mac didn't give up much information, which seemed to confirm to Austwins that he's shifty and they don't know where he's coming from. But he was much more open to giving up information after nominations. He clarified on the story about the argument, and made it clear that he doesn't trust Vanessa. That seemed to turn Austwins around on Johnny Mac.
I think J-Mac is finally figuring out that nodding and staring at people during game conversations may have served him well enough in the first half of this game, but if he wants anyone to trust him, he needs to start actually saying things. He has a lot going for him, as he's proven he can win competitions, and he's on good terms with most of the house. That can make him seem like a threat or an ally, depending on whether people believe he's on their side or not, his conversation with Liz on Friday after nominations went much better than he might even realize.
Liz won the Veto, and from the conversations I've seen so far, she doesn't plan to use it, deciding to leave the noms the same and go with a "let the house decide" approach over whether Becky or J-Mac goes. And unless Austwins change their mind, Becky will likely go. Vanessa would have no problem voting her out, which means if Austin and Julia also vote to evict Becky, even if Steve, Meg and James vote the other way, Liz would break the tie. But I don't see Meg and James going against whatever Austwins want, as they have a Final 5 agreement now.
Meanwhile, whether she knows it or not, Vanessa is on the outs with every single person in the house. I think her falling out with Austin stemmed from Shelli's campaign to stay, which involved firm declaration that Vanessa controls Austin and the twins. Because after that started to get around, Austin started getting really defensive about it, complaining that Vanessa made him grovel to stay the week he was almost backdoored, and complaining about her lying. I'm not sure it's crossed his mind that, with the exception of Vanessa's willingness to target him the week she was Head of Household, much of her sneakiness has directly benefited Austin and the twins. She was actively a part of keeping Julia and Liz's secret a safe in the beginning, and she's filled the trio in on things they need to know to stay off the radar.
Regardless, Austin and the twins -- including Julia, it seems -- are done with Vanessa. But they're keeping her close for now, and seem to have decided there's no reason to target her, as everyone else in the house wants her out also. Of course, it's entirely possible that between now and Monday's Veto ceremony, Austwins will decide to nominate Vanessa. The only reason I think that's unlikely is that they all know someone's coming back, and they might not want to take that risk. If they can get her out without her blood on their hands, that would be better.
So, no one trusts Vanessa. And assuming she's not back-doored this week, it's looking like she's everyone's target. That said, this house has proven to be very big on throwing around a commonly agreed-upon target... and then not actually doing much to get that person out. Steve was a big one for a while, as he seemed to be a person no one was afraid to openly target, yet no one really seemed all that committed to getting him out.
I would say it was good strategy for Austwins to shine a hard light on Vanessa to the rest of the house, especially coming out of this week, where Liz just proved she can win competitions. But given how much Austin goes on about her, even when it's just Liz listening, it comes off more personal and defensiveness than it does strategy. Regardless, Austin has turned on Vanessa. Whether or not Vanessa knows this, or has any idea that she's basically a target for the entire house, we don't know, as I don't think she trusts anyone in the house enough to talk about that. But it's possible she just doesn't realize how bad her situation is right now. We may have a better idea of that after Sunday night's Big Brother episode, and even more so by how she acts once the Veto is out of play for the week.
But I'm inclined to guess that if Vanessa stays this week, if anyone other than Austin or Julia win Head of Household, Austin or the twins seem primed to be the obvious target. If Becky or J-Mac goes Thursday, that splits that semi-duo up. Vanessa is by herself. Steve is by himself. And Meg and James still seem smaller by comparison to the Austwins. Why would people let those three stay together in this game if they have a chance to get them out? It really depends on whether or not that occurs to these houseguests before it's too late. But that's thinking a bit far ahead. There's still this week's Veto ceremony and the eviction. And Austwins holds all the power.