When it comes to my personal ranking of all the Rocky movies, Rocky IV is easily in the Top 3 of the franchise. The story of Rocky Balboa traveling to the Soviet Union to battle Ivan Drago to avenge his dead friend is iconic. To the point where if such a bout really happened in 2025, I'm sure a small fortune would go into making the world watch it with a Netflix subscription.
Another element that would be around in 2025 is betting odds, and while I know there are some strong opinions on how much its intertwined with the world of professional sports, I'm only human. As such, I couldn't help but be intrigued when a site provided the sportsbook numbers for this movie, and it has made me appreciate the film a lot more.
The Betting Odds Were Heavily In Drago's Favor
I want to think Rocky IV does a solid enough job explaining that Ivan Drago is the odds-on favorite to beat Rocky Balboa, but the numbers from Oddspedia really show just how much of a massacre this fight was expected to be. In a hypothetical analysis of the battle (meaning they're pretending they don't know the ending and treating this as an actual bout), Drago was given odds of -250 to win. This means he had an implied winning probability of 71.4%, which I can understand, given that he killed Apollo Creed.
As if that weren't enough, the odds of Drago winning by knockout are at -175, meaning there was a 63.6% implied chance that he would drop The Italian Stallion and lower the Iron Curtain. With wordplay like that, I'm saddened that CinemaBlend's Phillip Sledge didn't work that in as a factor in his showdown between Rocky III and IV.
No One Would Have Expected This Fight To Go The Distance
If betting apps were prevalent in 1985, oddsmakers would've been sweating at the outcome of the Balboa vs. Drago fight. Absolutely no one expected this fight to go the distance, with the odds of Drago being a winner by decision at +1000 (9.1% odds) and Rocky winning at +2000 (4.8%).
For those unfamiliar with betting, it means that if someone places a $100 bet on Rocky to win by decision, and that happens, they'd have a total of $ 1,100 in winnings. I can imagine there would've been a sigh of relief in Vegas when Rocky knocked out Drago in the final round, which only carried odds of +220. In comparison, that's a significantly smaller payout, with those staking $100 earning $320 in winnings.
In hindsight, it's probably a good thing that sports betting wasn't as prevalent when the Rocky movies came out. Paulie would've lost all of the fighter's money a lot quicker than he did, probably by hedging some of his brother-in-law's money on a Drago knockout. Or, he'd get tied up with the mob and try to convince Rocky to take a fall or something.
Rocky IV is available to rent on Amazon, and with a Prime subscription, there are plenty of other great movies to watch on the video platform. November is one of my favorite times to watch the Rocky movies, and it is always a great conversation starter with other family members when we gather for Thanksgiving.
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