Warning: SPOILERS for Avengers: Endgame ahead!
Thanks to the heroic efforts of the Time Heist team in Avengers: Endgame, Peter Parker is back in the land of the living, albeit 5 years later, and ready for his next big screen adventure. That adventure comes in the form of this summer’s Spider-Man: Far From Home. The long-range tracking is in for the film, and Spider-Man: Far From Home could be looking at a domestic opening weekend box office as high as $120 million.
Spider-Man: Far From Home doesn’t release until July, but the long-range tracking on the film from Box Office Pro sees it opening to between $90 million and $120 million over 3 days. Spidey’s Eurotrip actually opens on a Tuesday, right before Independence Day, so it should benefit from an extra-long opening weekend with people off for the holiday. The long-range tracking sees the film making between $190-$230 million over 6 days.
The 6-day opening has fewer comparisons, but a $90-$120 million 3-day opening weekend would be a solid debut for Tom Holland’s sophomore solo effort. Spider-Man: Homecoming opened to $117 million in July of 2017, and if Far From Home comes in on the high end of the long-range tracking, it would match and possibly even exceed that by a bit.
A domestic opening weekend of $120 million would actually give Spider-Man: Far From Home the second-biggest opening of any Spider-Man film, surpassing Homecoming. The only film that would remain ahead of it based on the tracking would be 2007’s Spider-Man 3, which opened to $151.1 million. So a $120 million opening would put Far From Home in the upper echelon of debuts for a superhero whose live-action big screen tenure has spanned 17 years and 3 iterations.
A $120 million opening would also put Spider-Man: Far From Home right in the neighborhood of Thor: Ragnarok, which opened to $122.7 million. If the film exceeds the high-end of the forecasts and makes over $128.1 million, it would beat Iron Man 2’s opening to snag a spot in the top 10 MCU openings.
This tracking is long-range so it can still fluctuate in either direction as we get closer to release, but Spider-Man: Far From Home has a lot going for it, the most obvious thing being its proximity to Avengers: Endgame. That film just enjoyed the biggest opening weekend of all time, and that only bodes well for future MCU movies because audiences will want to hop right back in to this world.
So many people will want to know what happens next, and what the fallout of Avengers: Endgame is, and Spider-Man: Far From Home is positioned to take advantage of that -- with plenty of new questions, and intriguing new wrinkles like the multiverse. The film, which is the official end of Marvel’s Phase 3 and the Infinity Saga, is focusing heavily on that Endgame fallout and specifically Tony Stark’s death, which has a profound effect on Peter.
On the competition front, Spider-Man: Far From Home pretty much stands alone. June 21’s Toy Story 4 will still be big and The Lion King doesn’t come out for two and a half weeks after Spidey. That means this movie will be far and away the ticket to buy over the July 4th holiday weekend.
Spider-Man: Far From Home swings into theaters on July 2. Check out our 2019 Release Schedule to see all of this summer’s biggest movies.