How Is The Oscars’ Best Picture Winner Decided, Anyway?

The 98th Academy Awards are finally here, as they land on the 2026 TV schedule tonight. And, as always, once the ceremony ends, the debate will begin about whether the best movie won Best Picture. In some years. the outcome feels inevitable but, other times, the winner surprises even people who closely follow the awards race. Part of the reason for that is simple: the Academy determines its biggest prize using a different voting system from that used for most other categories.

As The New York Times recently explained in an Instagram video breaking down the Oscars voting process, Best Picture is the only category decided using a preferential ballot. Instead of selecting just one favorite, Academy members rank every nominated film in order of preference. That approach can lead to outcomes that feel a little different from the rest of the awards, in which winners are typically determined by whichever nominee receives the most votes.

However, before a film can even reach the voting stage, it has to meet a fairly detailed set of eligibility rules.

The Rules A Movie Must Meet To Be Eligible For Best Picture

According to the official rules for the 98th Academy Awards, films must complete a qualifying theatrical release to be eligible for the Best Picture award. That means the movie must play for at least seven consecutive days in a commercial theater in one of several qualifying U.S. markets, including Los Angeles, New York City, Chicago, Atlanta, the Bay Area, or Dallas-Fort Worth.

Beyond that initial run, contenders must also complete an expanded theatrical release in at least nine additional markets, bringing the total to ten markets overall. The Academy introduced that rule to ensure Best Picture nominees still receive meaningful theatrical distribution.

Films must also meet two of the Academy’s four representation and inclusion standards, which were added in recent years to encourage diversity both on screen and behind the camera. Once a film clears those hurdles, it can officially enter the awards race.

Who Makes Up The Academy Voting Body?

Per Golden Derby, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences now has more than 10,000 members, divided into 17 professional branches, including actors, directors, writers, editors, producers, and other film industry craftspeople. During the nomination phase, most categories are decided by branch voting, actors nominate actors, directors nominate directors, and so on.

Best Picture is one of the few categories where all Academy members participate in the nomination process, regardless of their branch. Once the nominees are finalized, the full Academy also votes to determine the winner. But that final vote works differently from most categories.

For acting, directing, and many technical awards, the winner is simply the nominee who receives the most votes. Best Picture, however, uses the preferential ballot system. Academy voters rank each nominated film from their first choice down through the rest of the list.

To win outright, a film must receive more than 50 percent of the first-place votes. If one movie crosses that threshold immediately, the process is over, and the winner is declared. Yet, when many nominees are competing, that majority often doesn’t happen right away.

If no film secures a majority in the first round, the movie with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated. Ballots that ranked that film first are then redistributed to whichever film those voters placed second. The totals are recalculated, and the process continues.

If a majority still isn’t reached, the next-lowest-ranking film is eliminated and its votes redistributed. The cycle repeats until one film ultimately passes the 50 percent mark and becomes the Best Picture winner. In practice, that means the category often rewards the movie with the broadest overall support across the Academy, rather than just the most passionate group.

This is one reason the Best Picture race can remain unpredictable until the final envelope is opened.

The Film Most Likely To Win Best Picture In 2026

This year’s competition appears especially uncertain. As New York Times awards columnist Kyle Buchanan recently wrote while previewing the upcoming ceremony, the season has been “unusually fluid,” with several major races still feeling wide open heading into Oscar night. That unpredictability can be amplified by the preferential ballot system, which allows consensus favorites to emerge during the redistribution of votes.

In other words, the film that ultimately wins Best Picture may not always be the one leading early predictions. The system was introduced when the Academy expanded the category to include up to 10 nominees, a move some believe created too many nominees, but it was intended to recognize a wider range of films and to avoid winners that appealed only to a narrow group of voters.

So, while Oscar night will always feature its share of surprises, the voting structure itself plays a major role in shaping the outcome. Best Picture isn’t just about which movie finishes first, but which one the most Academy members can ultimately agree deserves the top honor.

The 98th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, airs tonight, March 15, at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and will also be available to stream live with a Hulu subscription. Here at Cinemablend, we’ve already made our predictions for the major Oscar categories, though it’s fair to say we didn’t all land on the same picks. Now, we’ll just have to wait and see how the night actually unfolds.