CinemaBlend Predicted The Major Oscar Categories, And We're Not On The Same Page In A Few Categories

The time is finally upon us. The 98th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, are this Sunday, and here at CinemaBlend, we’ve made our picks on who we think will take home the top eight categories of the night. Three of the categories (Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress) have clear-cut favorites amongst our staff. The remaining five (both screenplay awards, both supporting actor awards, and the award for Best Actor) are, quite honestly, very tricky to guess, because our opinions vary quite a bit.

The ceremony will be live on March 15th at 7pm ET on ABC, and available to stream live with a Hulu subscription. There are sure to be some surprises, but we’ve done our best to predict what we think will happen (though not necessarily our personal choices). We’ll start with the Best Screenplay Awards and work our way towards our pick for Best Picture, hitting all the acting awards and Best Director along the way. Each of our picks will be in bold among the list of nominees.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Tracy for Bugonia
• Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein
• Maggie O'Farrell and Chloe Zhao for Hamnet
• Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another – Our Predicted Winner
• Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar for Train Dreams

In our staff poll, the Best Adapted Screenplay choice is perhaps the most divisive. All five nominees were favored by at least one writer, and it was quite close between Hamnet, Frankenstein, and One Battle After Another. This highlights just how tricky this task can be, because it’s easy to make a case for any of the five. Ultimately, in a very tight poll, Paul Thomas Anderson came out on top for One Battle After Another.

Best Original Screenplay

• Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon
• Jafar Panahi and Nader Saivar for It Was Just An Accident
• Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein for Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for Sentimental Value
• Ryan Coogler for Sinners – Our Predicted Winner

Sinners set the record this year for the most Oscar nominations for a film ever, with 16, including this nomination for writer Ryan Coogler. The momentum for Sinners has only been growing as this very long awards season has gone on (thanks, Olympics). While the staff pick wasn’t as close as it was for Adapted, there was quite a bit of support for Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value, but in the end, Sinners came out on top. This isn’t quite a slam dunk, but it’s the most definitive of the five awards that weren’t easy picks for us.

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein
• Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
• Delroy Lindo for Sinners – Our Predicted Winner
• Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value

This race has been truly all over the place. Del Toro started the season strong with a string of critics' awards, Elordi won at the Critics' Choice, Skarsgård won the Golden Globe, and Penn has come on strong late with wins at BAFTA and the Actor Awards (formerly The SAG Awards). Four of the five nominees were picked by at least two writers each, and though Lindo hasn’t really been in the conversation until very late, on the strength of Sinners and his amazing performance, he is a real contender now. In fact, he is now the frontrunner, in our opinion.

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan for Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
• Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another – Our Predicted Winner

Like Best Supporting Actor, the race for Best Supporting Actress has been a wild ride, but it seems to have come down to three: Madigan, Mosaku, and Taylor. Each of the three has taken home awards this season, and while our choice ultimately had quite a bit of support, it’s impossible to rule out one of the other two women winning. Two months ago, it seemed like Taylor was going to sweep the season, but Madigan and Mosaku clearly have a lot of momentum as we get to the end here. We still think Taylor is the favorite for One Battle After Another, but just barely. Madigan and Mosaku are considered the favorites by quite a few folks around here.

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme – Our Predicted Winner
• Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
• Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

Now this is a fascinating race, and CinemaBlend’s poll reflects that. We asked the staff to name both who they would vote for and who they think will win. While the majority of staff have predicted Chalamet to win, a huge majority picked Michael B. Jordan as who they would have voted for, personally. It’s safe to say the race is between these two, and, in full disclosure, much of our polling took place before Jordan won at the Actor Awards. There seems to be a late surge happening in favor of the Sinners star. It would not surprise anyone if he takes home the Oscar, but we predict that Chalamet will win in what could be a historic victory.

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley for Hamnet – Our Predicted Winner
• Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone for Bugonia

Here’s where we’re getting to the Oscars that everyone on staff is most confident about in our predictions. In fact, in the Best Actress race, there haven’t been any surprises at all leading up to the Oscars. Jessie Buckley has completely swept the awards leading up to this Sunday, and there is no reason at all to think that will change at the Academy Awards. Buckley’s performance in Hamnet is incredible, and it’s hard to imagine anyone sneaking in and winning this over her. Stone and Byrne did receive some support from the CinemaBlend staff, but an overwhelming majority picked Buckley to win Best Actress.

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another – Our Predicted Winner
• Ryan Coogler for Sinners
• Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value
• Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Like Best Actor, the race for Best Director comes down to two men, Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson. All season long, the general consensus is that this is PTA’s time and he’s going to walk away with the win. Our prediction is no different, as a huge majority of our staff believe that this is Anderson’s award to lose. Could he, though? Well, interestingly, yeah, he could. As with Michael B. Jordan, when we ask the staff for their favorite, most picked Coogler as their personal choice, even if almost everyone still predicted PTA to win.

Best Picture

• Bugonia
• F1: The Movie
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another – Our Predicted Winner
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams
• The Secret Agent

It has gotten trickier and trickier to predict Best Picture over the years. Sure, there are times like two years ago when everyone pretty much knew that Oppenheimer was going to take home the biggest prize of the night. But then there are ones like last year when Anora came on very strong at the end of awards season, but was a little bit of a dark horse on Oscar night. This year could be either.

The strong consensus of the CinemaBlend staff is that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture, but as in a couple of categories, a majority of the staff picked Sinners as their personal favorite. This isn’t surprising, after all, Sinners was our choice for the best movie of 2025. The late momentum for Sinners has turned this award into a real nail-biter, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Ryan Coogler on stage accepting the award at the end of the night. However, as a group, we have to stick with our prediction, given that all but three staff members picked One Battle to win (interestingly, the other votes all went to Hamnet).

You can go to our list of the 98th Academy Awards nominees to see who could win in every category, including all the technical ones, and everything else. Other than KPop Demon Hunters winning Best Animated Feature and “Golden” from that movie winning Best Song (sorry again, Diane Warren) being pretty much foregone conclusions, there are close races in every single category.

Keep an eye out for our live blog as well, as we will be reacting along with everyone else when the winners are announced.