How Much Mission: Impossible Fallout Could Make Opening Weekend
The last true blockbuster of the summer, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, is also arguably the most action-packed and mustachioed. The sixth film in the long-running franchise releases this weekend and is looking to make a splash after a lackluster couple of weeks on the blockbuster front. By the looks of things, diminishing returns are not going to be a problem for Ethan Hunt and his team, because Mission: Impossible Fallout is tracking at opening at $135 million or more worldwide, making for a possible franchise record.
Christopher McQuarrie's film is looking to win the weekend with a domestic haul of around $55-$60 million, according to Deadline. Internationally, Mission: Impossible Fallout will add around $75-$80 million to that from its returns from 36 foreign markets. These numbers would put Mission: Impossible Fallout right around the mark necessary to eclipse Mission: Impossible-Ghost Protocol's $131.5 worldwide opening weekend, which is currently the best in the franchise. If it really overperforms, Fallout could hit $150 million worldwide this weekend. As far as domestic weekends for the franchise are concerned, Rogue Nation debuted with $55.5 million, but the worst film in the franchise, Mission: Impossible 2, holds first place with $57.8 million. The box office tracking for Fallout seemingly puts both the domestic and worldwide franchise records within reach.
Coming in behind Mission: Impossible Fallout at the domestic box office this weekend will be two holdovers and one newcomer. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again should hold pretty well and come in second with $19-$20 million. Denzel Washington's first sequel, The Equalizer 2, which beat expectations by coming in first last weekend, will likely drop to around $16.2 million, landing it in third place. The biggest newcomer other than Mission: Impossible Fallout is Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, which is predicted to open at $14 million.
The Mission: Impossible series overseas vs. domestic split has increasingly been weighted more towards overseas returns, with 71% of Rogue Nation's $682.7 million coming from foreign markets. Notably, some big foreign markets where the Mission: Impossible films have historically performed well will not be adding to the worldwide box office this weekend. The film does not open this weekend in Japan, China, Germany or even France, which is heavily featured in the film and is where it premiered. So Tom Cruise's latest film still has plenty of lucrative foreign openings to look forward to after this weekend.
Mission: Impossible Fallout is entering the weekend on the strength of the best reviews in the franchise, currently sitting at 97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Not every franchise continues to grow at the box office over time, and even fewer actually get better each time out, but Mission: Impossible continues to accomplish that impossible mission.
Mission: Impossible Fallout hits theaters this weekend. For all of the biggest movies still to come this year, check out our release schedule.
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Nick grew up in Maryland has degrees in Film Studies and Communications. His life goal is to walk the earth, meet people and get into adventures. He’s also still looking for The Adventures of Pete and Pete season 3 on DVD if anyone has a lead.
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